Flamengo vs Sao Paulo — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

Flamengo are clear favourites at home, sitting 2nd in Serie A with 11 wins in 18 games and exceptional recent form (4 wins, 1 draw in last 5). They've scored 14 goals in those five matches while conceding only 5. São Paulo, 12th with 7 wins in 19, arrive in poor form (2 draws, 2 losses in last 5) and missing key creator Lucas Moura to Achilles injury. Squad value favours Flamengo (€218M vs €83M). Head-to-head is mixed (Flamengo 2-4 in away record), but current form, superior attack (Pedro 12 goals, 18 apps) and injury burden on the visitor make Flamengo the strong pick. API model aligns (45% draw, 45% Flamengo win, only 10% away), though the near-even home/draw split suggests caution on full confidence.

Key factors

Flamengo 4W-1D in last 5 (14 GF, 5 GA); São Paulo 2L-2D in last 5 (5 GF, 5 GA)
Flamengo €218M squad value vs São Paulo €83M; Flamengo 2nd in table, São Paulo 12th
São Paulo missing Lucas Moura (Achilles tendon); Flamengo missing Lucas Paqueta (muscle) but Pedro (12 goals) healthy
H2H: Flamengo 0-2 at home recently (Jan 2026 2-1 loss to São Paulo), but current form separation is large
API model gives ~45% Flamengo, 45% draw, 10% São Paulo; form/attack favour home but draw risk is real

Win probability

Flamengo: 54%
Draw: 34%
Sao Paulo: 12%

Goals & scoring

Over 2.5 goals: 53%
Both teams to score: 50%

Recent form

Flamengo: WWWWD · Sao Paulo: LLWDD

Standings

Flamengo: 2nd in Serie A, 37 pts
Sao Paulo: 12th in Serie A, 25 pts

Head-to-head

Flamengo 2 · Sao Paulo 4 · 4 draws

2026-01-29: Sao Paulo 2-1 Flamengo
2025-11-06: Sao Paulo 2-2 Flamengo
2025-07-12: Flamengo 2-0 Sao Paulo
2025-01-19: Sao Paulo 0-0 Flamengo
2024-08-04: Sao Paulo 1-0 Flamengo