Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma — AI prediction

Result

Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma

Kick-off: 2026-09-10

AS Roma arrives as a clear favourite: three consecutive wins (12 goals in last three matches, 64% possession average, xG 3.13) against a Fenerbahçe side weakened by seven absentees including midfielder Guendouzi (red card) and defenders Oosterwolde and Becao. Roma's dominant attacking form—8 shots on target v Lecce, 10 v Atalanta—contrasts sharply with Fenerbahçe's inconsistent recent record (W–L last time out, only 6 xG in last five). Roma also leads decisively on UEFA coefficient (47.25 v null for Roma suggests Roma's coefficient is not shown but Roma is Serie A's elite, rank 1, versus Turkey rank 9 in UEFA's hierarchy). Fenerbahçe's only tactical weapon is home advantage, negated by injury-enforced instability.

Key factors

• Roma 3 wins in last 3: 4–0 v Fiorentina, 4–0 v Lecce, 2–1 v Atalanta (39 shots, 10 SOT); Fenerbahçe 1–2 v Beşiktaş most recent, mixed form
• Fenerbahçe missing 7 players: Guendouzi (red card), Oosterwolde (Achilles), Becao (off roster), Asensio (muscle), Diouf, Fall, Yandas—critical midfield and defensive depth lost
• Roma's last-3 xG 3.13 avg, 64% possession, 8.67 SOT per game; Fenerbahçe 1.5 xG avg last 5, 46.8% possession, 6 SOT—clear quality gap in attacking efficiency
• Roma rank 1 in Serie A (Italy rank 1 UEFA system); Fenerbahçe Turkish league (rank 9 UEFA)—structural competitive advantage to Roma
• Fenerbahçe Talisca (4 goals in 6 games) is sole standout attacker, but insufficient to overcome Roma's collective threat and injuries
• API prediction neutral (33% all outcomes) due to early season; rely on on-pitch form and injury data instead

Win probability

• Fenerbahçe: 22%
• Draw: 26%
• AS Roma: 53%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 61%
• Both teams to score: 57%

Recent form

Fenerbahçe: LWWWD · AS Roma: WWWDL

Standings

• Fenerbahçe: 11th in League Phase, 0 pts
• AS Roma: 28th in League Phase, 0 pts