Dinamo Tbilisi vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-23
Zalgiris arrive in Tbilisi in sharply better form — four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 11 and conceding just 3, versus Dinamo's patchy DWDLW with only 5 goals scored. The API model (Zalgiris 45% win, Poisson 77%) aligns with the away side's superior attacking output, though home advantage at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium narrows the gap somewhat. The sole H2H meeting was a 0-0, and no injury data separates the sides, but Zalgiris's momentum is the decisive factor. Market odds (home 2.08 vs away 3.65) appear to overvalue Dinamo given the form disparity.
Key factors
- Zalgiris last-5 form: WWWWD, 11 goals scored / 3 conceded — clearly the in-form side
- Dinamo last-5: DWDLW, 5 scored / 4 conceded, unconvincing at home (drew 1-1 vs Mondorf most recently)
- API model strongly favours Zalgiris: 45% win, Poisson 77%, Attack comparison 63% vs 38%
- Only H2H meeting ended 0-0 (2023) — suggests a tight, low-scoring encounter is possible
- No injury absentees confirmed for either side; lineups not yet published
- Market odds imply ~48% Dinamo win probability, which looks inflated versus form evidence
- Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last two competitive games (season stats: 0 clean sheets each)
- Away team total goals odds suggest market expects Zalgiris to score at least once (under 1.5 priced at 1.30)
Win probability
- Dinamo Tbilisi: 37%
- Draw: 30%
- FK Zalgiris Vilnius: 33%
Goals & scoring
- Both teams to score: 45%
Recent form
Dinamo Tbilisi: DWDLW · FK Zalgiris Vilnius: WWWWD
Head-to-head
Dinamo Tbilisi 0 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0 · 1 draws
- 2023-02-01: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 0-0 Dinamo Tbilisi