Deportivo La Coruna vs Sevilla — AI prediction

Result

Deportivo La Coruna 0-1 Sevilla

Kick-off: 2026-09-16

Deportivo La Coruna sit 7th in La Liga after 5 matches with 9 points (2W-3D), while Sevilla are 6th with 10 points (3W-1D-1L). Deportivo show resilience at home (recent W vs Valencia 3-1, three consecutive draws), but Sevilla hold the clearer form edge: three wins in their last five, better shot volume (13 shots/game vs Deportivo's 8.6), and superior xG (1.21 vs 0.91). The bookmaker model and API prediction favour Sevilla 59.5% vs 40.5%, reflecting their offensive threat. Both sides have full squads and no injuries reported. Deportivo's strength lies in avoiding defeat (3 draws in 5), but Sevilla's attacking potency—particularly on the road where they've won 2 of their last 3 away—edge them as a narrow away favourite.

Key factors

• Sevilla's recent form superior: 3 wins in last 5 vs Deportivo's 2 wins, 3 draws—suggests more consistent attacking threat
• Shot and xG metrics strongly favour Sevilla (13.0 shots/4.0 SOT, xG 1.21 per game) vs Deportivo (8.6 shots/3.4 SOT, xG 0.91)
• Deportivo defensively sound at home but toothless in attack (3 draws in last 4 home games show defensive resilience but inability to break down opponents)
• Sevilla 3-1-1 away record this season; Deportivo 0 clean sheets in 5 matches (both sides score in 4 of last 5 for Deportivo)
• No injuries to either side; lineups not published but no absence disadvantage evident
• Standings confirm Sevilla 6th (10 pts, +2 GD) vs Deportivo 7th (9 pts, +3 GD)—tight table, but Sevilla's win rate (60%) outpaces Deportivo's (40%)
• API Poisson model: Sevilla 55% win probability; H2H metric 85% favours Sevilla (historical away record)

Win probability

• Deportivo La Coruna: 29%
• Draw: 34%
• Sevilla: 37%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 55%

Recent form

Deportivo La Coruna: DWWDD · Sevilla: WDLWW

Standings

• Deportivo La Coruna: 7th in La Liga, 9 pts
• Sevilla: 6th in La Liga, 10 pts