DC United vs Toronto FC — AI prediction
Result
DC United 2-1 Toronto FC
Kick-off: 2026-07-25
DC United hosts Toronto FC at Audi Field in a matchup between two struggling Eastern Conference sides. DC United (9th, 18 pts) have drawn 3 of their last 5 but show stronger recent form (75%) and attacking threat (71%) per the API model. Toronto FC (12th, 15 pts) are in freefall—just 1 draw in their last 5 games, with only 4 goals in that span and a dire -7 goal difference. Toronto's injury toll is severe: Matheus Pereira (groin), N. Gomis (thigh), M. Cimermancic (thigh), N. Palacio (lower body), and L. Stefanovic (foot) all absent. DC's T. Baribo has 8 goals in 12 appearances and remains a scoring threat. Despite the API model showing a 45–45 home-draw split (suggesting value in draw), the form gap and Toronto's depleted squad heavily favour DC United's home advantage.
Key factors
- Toronto FC in dire form: 1D–4L last 5, only 4 goals scored, -7 GD. DC United 3D–1L, stronger recent metrics (form 75%, attack 71%).
- Toronto missing 5 key players (Matheus Pereira, Gomis, Cimermancic, Palacio, Stefanovic) due to injuries; DC has only 2 absences (Antley, Segal).
- T. Baribo (DC) 8 goals in 12 apps is in-form at home; Toronto's attacking unit compromised with key absences.
- Head-to-head: DC 4 wins, Toronto 3 wins, 3 draws (slight DC edge); recent meetings mixed but DC won 3–1 away in Aug 2024.
- API model warns of defensive frailty (DC 47%, Toronto 53%) and suggests draw risk; however, Toronto's form collapse and injury crisis override that signal.
- Venue: Audi Field (DC home); standard home advantage applies.
Win probability
- DC United: 50%
- Draw: 30%
- Toronto FC: 20%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 48%
- Both teams to score: 47%
Recent form
DC United: DDDL · Toronto FC: DDLLL
Standings
- DC United: 9th in Eastern Conference, 18 pts
- Toronto FC: 12th in Eastern Conference, 15 pts
Head-to-head
DC United 4 · Toronto FC 3 · 3 draws
- 2025-05-10: Toronto FC 2-0 DC United
- 2025-02-23: DC United 2-2 Toronto FC
- 2024-08-31: Toronto FC 1-3 DC United
- 2024-06-01: DC United 2-2 Toronto FC
- 2023-05-27: Toronto FC 2-1 DC United