CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-30

Qarabag holds a decisive structural edge: UEFA coefficient 32.0 vs CSKA Sofia's 4.0, and country rank 26 (vs Sofia's 28), placing the Azerbaijani side among Europe's stronger clubs in this competition. Head-to-head favours Qarabag (2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses); the most recent meeting just seven days prior ended 0–0. Both sides show strong recent form (Sofia 4W-1D in last 5, Qarabag 2W-2L but recent season 2W-0L-0D with two clean sheets), yet the gulf in European pedigree and direct history points decisively to the away side. Sofia's summer preparation has been competitive but domestic; Qarabag's continental experience and unbeaten head-to-head record make them the clear favourites.

Key factors

• Qarabag UEFA coefficient (32.0) vastly exceeds CSKA Sofia (4.0) — decisive European strength gap
• Head-to-head: Qarabag 2W-1D-0L; most recent (2026-07-23) was 0–0 draw
• Qarabag country rank 26 vs Sofia 28 — marginal but favours away side
• Sofia's recent form strong domestically (11 goals in last 5, 4W-1D) but limited continental exposure
• Qarabag's season form 2W-0L with 2 clean sheets; Sofia 2W-0L-0D with 0 clean sheets
• Both sides entering regular stage competition; no injury data available
• Neutral venue effect minimal; Sofia plays at home ground but Qarabag's superior class dominates
• Recent low-scoring encounter (0–0) suggests tight, cautious affair; high-side 1X2 odds (Sofia 3.05) reflect underdog premium

Win probability

• CSKA Sofia: 26%
• Draw: 28%
• Qarabag: 45%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 43%
• Both teams to score: 47%

Recent form

CSKA Sofia: DWWWW · Qarabag: WWLL

Head-to-head

CSKA Sofia 0 · Qarabag 2 · 1 draws

• 2026-07-23: Qarabag 0-0 CSKA Sofia
• 2023-07-04: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag
• 2021-07-07: CSKA Sofia 0-1 Qarabag