Columbus Crew vs New York City FC — AI prediction
Result
Columbus Crew 1-2 New York City FC
Kick-off: 2026-07-22
Columbus (10th, 16pts) host NYCFC (8th, 19pts) in a meeting where the visitors carry better season numbers but arrive with a significantly depleted squad — Moralez, A. Martinez, and Baiera all confirmed out, with Talles Magno, Parks, Jones and Wolf all questionable. Columbus won this exact fixture 1-0 two months ago and hold a 4-2-4 H2H edge at home. The API model heavily favours NYCFC, but their injury list materially weakens that case, and Columbus's home form (2W-2D-1L last five at home/neutral) is solid enough to make them competitive. A tightly contested, low-scoring home win is the most likely outcome.
Key factors
- NYCFC have 3 confirmed absentees (Moralez, A. Martinez, Baiera – all knee injuries) plus 4 questionable, severely weakening their squad depth
- Columbus won this H2H fixture 1-0 on May 20 and have a 4-2 home H2H advantage overall
- Columbus last-5: DWWDL – two home wins with clean sheets recently (vs Atlanta 2-0, vs NYCFC 1-0)
- NYCFC last-5: LLDWW – two of their wins were away from home but both losses came on the road (Nashville, Columbus)
- NYCFC season: 25 GF / 21 GA – more attacking output but compromised without key midfielders
- Columbus season: only 4 wins, but xG in recent home games (1.69, 1.51) suggests they create chances consistently at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field
- No home key player data available; N. Fernandez Mercau (10G in 15 apps) is NYCFC's main threat but his availability is not confirmed absent
- API model says draw/NYCFC but this disagrees with injury evidence and H2H at this venue
- Low corners average for Columbus recently (2.67) suggests a compact, counter-oriented home setup
- BTTS market: NYCFC have only 3 clean sheets in 15 games; Columbus failed to score in 3 – moderate BTTS probability
Win probability
- Columbus Crew: 46%
- Draw: 28%
- New York City FC: 26%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 49%
- Both teams to score: 50%
Recent form
Columbus Crew: DWWDL · New York City FC: LLDWW
Standings
- Columbus Crew: 10th in Eastern Conference, 16 pts
- New York City FC: 8th in Eastern Conference, 19 pts
Head-to-head
Columbus Crew 4 · New York City FC 2 · 4 draws
- 2026-05-20: Columbus Crew 1-0 New York City FC
- 2026-05-10: New York City FC 3-0 Columbus Crew
- 2025-09-17: New York City FC 3-2 Columbus Crew
- 2025-03-22: Columbus Crew 0-0 New York City FC
- 2024-08-31: Columbus Crew 4-2 New York City FC