Chengdu Better City vs Beijing Guoan — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-07-26

Chengdu Better City leads the league with 43 points and boasts a prolific attack (Felipe 11 goals, Wei Shihao 8), but recent form is alarming: four consecutive draws mask poor shooting efficiency (3.5 shots on target per game last-5). Beijing Guoan has won three of the last four meetings and arrives in sharper form (2 wins, 1 draw in last-4), with strong recent attacking returns (7.67 SOT/game vs Chengdu's 3.5). Head-to-head favours away: Guoan beat Chengdu 2-1 in April 2026 and won 3-2 away in October 2023. Home advantage is real but insufficient to overcome Chengdu's conversion crisis and Guoan's momentum; a competitive match with away value at 3.45.

Key factors

• Chengdu's form collapse: 4 draws in last 5 (1 win) with just 9 goals conceded across them, yet only 9 scored—poor finishing despite dominance
• Felipe (11G in 13 apps) is prolific but recent games show SOT dropped to 3.5/game; without a reliable finisher in tandem, Chengdu is toothless
• Beijing Guoan last 4 results: 2W-1D-1L with 6 goals in 4 games; recent SOT average 7.67/game signals sharper attacking output
• H2H: Guoan 4 wins vs Chengdu 3 wins in last 10 meetings; Guoan won 2-1 away in April 2026 and 3-2 away in Oct 2023—away record strong
• No injuries reported for either side; both at full strength
• API Poisson model heavily favours home (73% vs 27% away), but contradicted by form/H2H evidence—suggests market overvalues home position
• Standings: Chengdu 1st (43pts, 13W-4D-2L), Guoan 7th (22pts, 7W-6D-5L); gap real but Chengdu's stalled momentum narrows the gap in this fixture

Win probability

• Chengdu Better City: 45%
• Draw: 25%
• Beijing Guoan: 30%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 56%
• Both teams to score: 60%

Recent form

Chengdu Better City: DDDDW · Beijing Guoan: WDWW

Standings

• Chengdu Better City: 1st in Chinese Super League, 43 pts
• Beijing Guoan: 7th in Chinese Super League, 22 pts

Head-to-head

Chengdu Better City 3 · Beijing Guoan 4 · 3 draws

• 2026-04-12: Beijing Guoan 1-2 Chengdu Better City
• 2025-07-26: Chengdu Better City 2-0 Beijing Guoan
• 2025-03-29: Beijing Guoan 1-1 Chengdu Better City
• 2024-09-14: Chengdu Better City 2-2 Beijing Guoan
• 2024-05-05: Beijing Guoan 2-1 Chengdu Better City