Cagliari vs Lecce — AI prediction

Result

Cagliari 1-0 Lecce

Kick-off: 2026-09-07

Cagliari host Lecce at Unipol Domus in Serie A with both sides at 2 matches played and 3 points on the board. Cagliari's form is fragile—two straight losses (0–1 to Inter, 1–2 to Hellas Verona) despite 3 goals for and 3 against across their last 5. Lecce, however, arrive sharper: 1 win and 1 loss in Serie A (8 goals for, 8 against in last 5 across all comps), and crucially, the recent head-to-head strongly favors the away side—Lecce won their last meeting here 0–2 in February 2026. Cagliari are missing R. Idrissi (knee) and Y. Trepy (injury), with Y. Mina questionable; Lecce have only W. Geubbels questionable. The bookmaker API model rates this nearly a coin flip (home 10%, draw 45%, away 45%), but the pitch form, away tactical edge in recent H2H, and Cagliari's injury load tilt marginally toward Lecce.

Key factors

• Cagliari: 2 consecutive defeats (Inter 0–1, Hellas 1–2); only 3 shots on target in last 2 games.
• Lecce: Last H2H meeting (Feb 2026) won 0–2 away at Cagliari; recent W–L form in Serie A less damaging than Cagliari's.
• Injuries: Cagliari missing Idrissi (knee) and Trepy; Mina (calf) questionable. Lecce only Geubbels (questionable).
• Head-to-head tally: 3–3 wins, 4 draws, but Lecce's last two away visits (Feb 0–2 win, Jan 1–2 win) show recent dominance.
• Home advantage: Standard (not neutral); Cagliari 47.75% avg possession but only 3 SOT per game.
• API prediction: Nearly tied (home 10% vs away 45% weighted); advises draw/Lecce double chance.

Win probability

• Cagliari: 39%
• Draw: 36%
• Lecce: 24%

Goals & scoring

• Both teams to score: 49%

Recent form

Cagliari: LLWWD · Lecce: LWLWW

Standings

• Cagliari: 11th in Serie A, 3 pts
• Lecce: 12th in Serie A, 3 pts

Head-to-head

Cagliari 3 · Lecce 3 · 4 draws

• 2026-02-16: Cagliari 0-2 Lecce
• 2025-09-19: Lecce 1-2 Cagliari
• 2025-01-19: Cagliari 4-1 Lecce
• 2024-08-31: Lecce 1-0 Cagliari
• 2024-05-05: Cagliari 1-1 Lecce