Bodo/Glimt vs NEC Nijmegen — AI prediction

Result

Bodo/Glimt 3-0 NEC Nijmegen

Kick-off: 2026-08-25

Bodo/Glimt is the heavy favourite on strong recent form: 4 wins in last 5 matches (15 goals for, 7 against, dominant 64% form vs 36% for NEC), plus a 3-1 away victory over NEC Nijmegen just 6 days ago. However, Bodo/Glimt faces significant injury complications—H. Evjen, A. Mikkelsen, and I. Sjong confirmed missing, plus four questionable players—while NEC is similarly depleted (5 confirmed absentees, 2 questionable). The bookmaker model aligns with Bodo's edge (45% home vs 10% away) on form, attack, and H2H grounds, though NEC's possession and defensive strength are noted. Home advantage at Aspmyra is modest in a knockout context. The recent head-to-head dominance and superior form make Bodo/Glimt the pick, but injury depth concerns and NEC's shot output (21.67 per recent game) counsel moderate confidence.

Key factors

  • Bodo/Glimt won 3-1 away vs NEC Nijmegen on 2026-08-19 (6 days prior); dominant H2H and form edge (64% vs 36%).
  • Bodo/Glimt last 5: WWWDW, 15 goals for / 7 against; average 5.4 shots on target per game, 2.08 xG.
  • NEC Nijmegen last 5: LWWL (only 3 games recorded), 8 goals for / 7 against; high possession (64.67%) but 5.67 shots on target average and poor recent result vs Bodo.
  • Bodo/Glimt injuries: H. Evjen (knee), A. Mikkelsen (groin), I. Sjong confirmed out; 4 further players questionable; squad depth tested.
  • NEC Nijmegen injuries: A. Kaplan (knee), K. Ogawa (head), S. Ouaissa (muscle), P. Sandler, P. Schuurs (knee) confirmed out; 2 questionable.
  • API bookmaker model: 45% Bodo/Glimt, 45% draw, 10% NEC (slight draw warning despite Bodo odds); form, attack, goals favour Bodo; defence 60% NEC.
  • Knockout regulation-time settlement: extra time and penalties ignored for 1X2 and related markets.
  • UEFA coefficient and country-rank data missing; squad market value unavailable—cannot apply structural quality check; rely on recent form and injuries as primary signals.

Win probability

  • Bodo/Glimt: 53%
  • Draw: 32%
  • NEC Nijmegen: 15%

Goals & scoring

  • Both teams to score: 59%

Recent form

Bodo/Glimt: WWWDW · NEC Nijmegen: LWWL

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt 1 · NEC Nijmegen 0 · 0 draws

  • 2026-08-19: NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Bodo/Glimt

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