Belgium vs Senegal — AI prediction

Result

Belgium 3-2 Senegal

Kick-off: 2026-07-01

Belgium are the clear pick. They boast the tournament's meanest defence (only 2 conceded in 5, two clean sheets) and a De Bruyne–Trossard–Doku attack that put 5 past both Tunisia and New Zealand. Senegal are wobbling defensively (WLLDL, 9 conceded, three losses) and lose keeper Édouard Mendy to a knee injury, forcing Mory Diaw in. That defensive gap, backed by the model's 75% defence edge, tilts this toward a Belgium win or draw rather than a Senegal upset at 3.74.

Key factors

• Belgium last5 WDDWW, 13 GF / 2 GA, two clean sheets vs Senegal WLLDL, 10 GF / 9 GA
• Senegal lost É. Mendy (twisted knee); Mory Diaw starts in goal
• Belgium XI packed with quality: De Bruyne, Trossard, Doku, Tielemans behind De Ketelaere
• Senegal's dangerous front three (Mané, Sarr, Ndiaye) keeps BTTS live; Sarr 3 goals in 3
• API model: Belgium winner, defence 75% vs 25%, advice 'Belgium or draw'
• Neutral venue — home advantage nominal
• Belgium's higher recent xG (1.91) vs Senegal (1.75) but Senegal leaky at the back

Win probability

• Belgium: 48%
• Draw: 28%
• Senegal: 23%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 53%
• Both teams to score: 55%

Recent form

Belgium: WDDWW · Senegal: WLLDL

Standings

• Belgium: 1st in Group G, 5 pts
• Senegal: 3rd in Group I, 3 pts