Bahia vs Corinthians — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-26
Bahia and Corinthians are closely matched in this mid-table Serie A clash. Bahia hold a modest standing advantage (6th vs 7th, 30 points each) and slightly superior recent form (3W-1D-1L vs 1W-1D-2L in their last 5), though Corinthians' away record carries a minor edge. The head-to-head shows Bahia have won 4 to Corinthians' 3 in their last meetings, including two consecutive away wins (2–1 in January and August 2026). Bahia's key attacker Luciano Juba (7 goals, 15 appearances) and home-field advantage at Arena Fonte Nova provide support. However, Corinthians boast a €27m squad-value advantage (€150.3m vs €118.8m) and stronger defensive stats (57% vs 43% on the API's defence metric). Injuries affect both: Bahia miss Leo Vieira and M. Moreno; Corinthians lose M. Depay (rest), Kayke, and Vitinho. The API prediction leans Bahia–draw (45% each), but the odds (2.10 home, 3.30 draw, 3.40 away) suggest fair value on the home pick or a draw.
Key factors
- Bahia 6th (30 pts) vs Corinthians 7th (27 pts), but standings are tight mid-season.
- Bahia recent form: W–W–L–W–D (last 5); Corinthians: W–D–W–L–(missing 5th game data).
- Head-to-head favours Bahia: 4 wins to 3, and Bahia won 2–1 away in both Jan and Aug 2026.
- Luciano Juba (Bahia) 7 goals in 15 games; Corinthians key-player stats unavailable.
- Squad market value: Corinthians €150.3m vs Bahia €118.8m (27% edge), but form and H2H favour home.
- Injuries: Bahia – Leo Vieira (injury), M. Moreno (fitness); Corinthians – M. Depay (rest), Kayke (knee), Vitinho (hip).
- Home advantage: Arena Fonte Nova (Bahia); API defence metric favours Bahia 57% vs 43%.
- API prediction: 45% Bahia, 45% draw, 10% Corinthians; Total goals Poisson model suggests 59% home win probability.
- Betting odds: 2.10 (Bahia), 3.30 (draw), 3.40 (away) — no obvious arbitrage; implied Bahia ~48%, draw ~30%, away ~29%.
Win probability
- Bahia: 45%
- Draw: 36%
- Corinthians: 19%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 48%
- Both teams to score: 52%
Recent form
Bahia: DWLWW · Corinthians: WDWL
Standings
- Bahia: 6th in Serie A, 30 pts
- Corinthians: 7th in Serie A, 27 pts
Head-to-head
Bahia 4 · Corinthians 3 · 3 draws
- 2026-01-28: Corinthians 1-2 Bahia
- 2025-08-17: Corinthians 1-2 Bahia
- 2025-03-30: Bahia 1-1 Corinthians
- 2024-12-03: Corinthians 3-0 Bahia
- 2024-07-21: Bahia 0-1 Corinthians