Auxerre vs Nice — AI prediction

Result

Auxerre 1-0 Nice

Kick-off: 2026-09-12

Auxerre are bottom of Ligue 1 with zero points from three games, suffering heavy defeats (3-1, 3-1, 5-2) and conceding 11 goals in that stretch. Nice sit 15th with only 2 points, but have drawn 2 of their last 3 and shown defensive solidity (1 clean sheet, just 4 goals conceded in 3 games). Both sides carry substantial injury lists; Auxerre missing five players including Fofana and Okoh, Nice without Bombito, Abergel, Mendy and Sanson. The API model favours Auxerre at 45% (home + draw bias), but on-pitch evidence contradicts this sharply: Auxerre's 0-point run, -7 goal difference and xG-to-reality mismatch (1.45 xG yielded 4 goals; fragile defence) stand against Nice's superior recent control (57.67% possession, 0.98 xG, defensive discipline). Head-to-head is even (3-3-4), and home advantage is modest. Nice's draw-heavy form and defensive structure make them the better-backed selection, though neither side inspires confidence.

Key factors

• Auxerre: 0 points from 3 Ligue 1 games, -7 GD, three consecutive heavy defeats (1-3, 1-3, 2-5)
• Nice: 2 points from 3, -3 GD, 2 draws in last 3 and 1 clean sheet; defensive stability (57.67% possession, 0.98 xG, 4 GA in 3 games)
• Auxerre injuries: Fofana (groin), Okoh (knee), Diousse (knee), Senaya, Siwe (muscle) – five absentees
• Nice injuries: Bombito (leg), Abergel, Mendy (both knee), Sanson (surgery) – four key players out, including defensive options
• API model predicts Auxerre 45% but emphasises form disparity (Nice 100%, Auxerre 0%); contradicted by Auxerre's defence (27%) and Nice's defence (73%)
• H2H even: 3 home wins, 3 away wins, 4 draws in recent six; Nice won last away visit 3-1 but Auxerre won last home fixture 2-1
• Goals trend: Auxerre conceded 11 in 3 games with poor set-piece/transition control; Nice 0.98 xG in 3 games suggests offensive fragility but disciplined shape

Win probability

• Auxerre: 28%
• Draw: 34%
• Nice: 38%

Recent form

Auxerre: LLLW · Nice: DLDDD

Standings

• Auxerre: 18th in Ligue 1, 0 pts
• Nice: 15th in Ligue 1, 2 pts

Head-to-head

Auxerre 3 · Nice 3 · 4 draws

• 2026-05-10: Auxerre 2-1 Nice
• 2025-08-23: Nice 3-1 Auxerre
• 2025-03-14: Nice 1-1 Auxerre
• 2024-08-18: Auxerre 2-1 Nice
• 2024-01-06: Nice 0-0 Auxerre