Atalanta vs Bologna — AI prediction

Result

Atalanta 1-0 Bologna

Kick-off: 2026-08-31

Atalanta arrive as heavy favourites on home form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding just 1 goal across that run and sitting 9th in Serie A with 3 points from 1 game. Bologna, by contrast, have lost 3 of their last 5 and opened their league campaign with a 0–1 home defeat to Lazio; they sit 14th with 0 points and have failed to score in that league match. Atalanta's defensive solidity (7 goals for, 1 against in recent form) and Bologna's attacking frailty (0 goals scored this season, 1.78 xG but finished) strongly favour a home win. No injuries are reported for either side. The market prices Atalanta at ~1.88, implying a 53% win probability—conservative relative to the form gap.

Key factors

• Atalanta: 4 wins in last 5 matches (WWDWW); 7 goals for, 1 against in recent form; 9th in Serie A with 3 pts from 1 game.
• Bologna: 3 losses in last 5 matches (LLLWW); 0 goals scored in Serie A debut (1–0 loss to Lazio); 14th, 0 pts.
• Atalanta has clean-sheet form and control at home (62% possession, 5 shots on target vs Tel Aviv); Bologna conceded last time despite 14 shots and 59% possession.
• No injuries reported for either side.
• Home advantage at New Balance Arena is standard; Atalanta have recently played multiple matches and appear match-sharp entering the league phase.

Win probability

• Atalanta: 52%
• Draw: 24%
• Bologna: 23%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 48%
• Both teams to score: 46%

Recent form

Atalanta: WWDWW · Bologna: LLLWW

Standings

• Atalanta: 9th in Serie A, 3 pts
• Bologna: 14th in Serie A, 0 pts