AS Roma vs Fiorentina — AI prediction

Result

AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina

Kick-off: 2026-08-24

AS Roma host Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico in a Serie A opener where neither side has yet played a league match. Roma's pre-season form is mixed (DLWLD; 10 goals for, 13 against), including losses to Brighton and Cardiff, but they hold a strong head-to-head record (5 wins vs. Fiorentina's 3, including a dominant 4-0 at home in May 2026). Fiorentina are sharper in recent friendlies (WDDW; 8 goals for, 4 against), notably beating Benevento 4-1 with 7 shots on target. Both sides carry injuries: Roma lose Pellegrini (thigh) and Bah (knee); Fiorentina miss Parisi (knee) and Sottil (back). The bookmaker model (45% Roma, 45% draw, 10% Fiorentina) reflects Roma's home advantage and historical edge, but the absence of current-season form and Fiorentina's sharper pre-season preparation inject uncertainty. Roma are favoured, but this is early-season volatility rather than a clear edge.

Key factors

  • Neither side has played a Serie A match; form signals are pre-season only.
  • Roma's pre-season: mixed (2 losses, 2 draws, 1 win; 10 GF, 13 GA); Fiorentina's: stronger (2 wins, 2 draws; 8 GF, 4 GA).
  • Head-to-head: Roma 5 wins, Fiorentina 3 wins, 2 draws; Roma won 4-0 at home in May 2026.
  • Roma missing Pellegrini (midfield/creativity) and Bah (defence); Fiorentina missing Parisi (defence) and Sottil (attacking wing).
  • Home advantage and historical record favour Roma, but early-season volatility and Fiorentina's sharper pre-season form create genuine draw/upset risk.
  • Bookmaker model: 45% Roma, 45% draw, 10% Fiorentina—reflects uncertainty but leans on Roma's home/H2H edge.

Win probability

  • AS Roma: 49%
  • Draw: 37%
  • Fiorentina: 14%

Goals & scoring

  • Over 2.5 goals: 54%
  • Both teams to score: 51%

Recent form

AS Roma: DLWLD · Fiorentina: WDDW

Standings

  • AS Roma: 10th in Serie A, 0 pts
  • Fiorentina: 13th in Serie A, 0 pts

Head-to-head

AS Roma 5 · Fiorentina 3 · 2 draws

  • 2026-05-04: AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina
  • 2025-10-05: Fiorentina 1-2 AS Roma
  • 2025-05-04: AS Roma 1-0 Fiorentina
  • 2024-10-27: Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma
  • 2024-03-10: Fiorentina 2-2 AS Roma

Other match predictions

About

Match Oracle — AI football predictions and match analysis.