Anderlecht vs Hammarby FF — AI prediction
Kick-off: 2026-07-30
Anderlecht hold a commanding UEFA coefficient edge (28.25 vs 6.0) and play at home, but Hammarby's pre-season form is strikingly superior: 4 wins in their last 5 with 14 goals scored and clinical shot data (8.5 on-target per game, 2.42 xG average). Anderlecht's 3 wins are against modest Belgian/French opposition and include a 0–0 draw; they conceded 3 in 4 games. The teams drew 1–1 one week ago. Hammarby's underlying metrics—high possession, high shot volume, high conversion—suggest they are the sharper, more dangerous side despite lower pedigree. Home advantage and Anderlecht's historical strength warrant slight odds, but Hammarby's current trajectory and the recent stalemate make a draw or Hammarby win the higher-probability outcomes.
Key factors
- Hammarby are in exceptional pre-season form (4W1L, 14 goals in 5), significantly outperforming Anderlecht (3W1D, 6 goals in 4).
- Hammarby's last-4 shot data: 18.75 per game, 8.5 on-target, 2.42 xG average—far more clinical and dominant than Anderlecht's recent opponents.
- Teams drew 1–1 just 7 days ago; recent familiarity and balanced form in that tie reduce Anderlecht's home-field edge.
- Anderlecht's UEFA coefficient (28.25) and Belgium's rank (7/55) dwarf Hammarby (6.0, Sweden rank 18/55), but on-pitch evidence does not reflect that gap in this fixture.
- No injury data provided for either side; both appear at full strength.
- This is a Europa League regular-stage tie; Hammarby's smaller stature is offset by their pre-season sharpness and the absence of a wide form gap.
Win probability
- Anderlecht: 37%
- Draw: 31%
- Hammarby FF: 32%
Goals & scoring
- Over 2.5 goals: 54%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Recent form
Anderlecht: WWWD · Hammarby FF: WWWWL
Head-to-head
Anderlecht 0 · Hammarby FF 0 · 1 draws
- 2026-07-23: Hammarby FF 1-1 Anderlecht