Alaves vs Valencia — AI prediction

Result

Alaves 0-1 Valencia

Kick-off: 2026-09-15

Alaves are in strong early-season form (3W–1D in 5 games, +6 goal difference, 4th in La Liga) and face a Valencia side in freefall: 0 wins in 5 matches, 1 goal scored, 10 conceded, and dead last. Alaves' key men Lucas Boyé (4 goals in 4 games) and Mariano Díaz (3 goals, 3 assists in 5) lead a potent attack; Valencia are missing key defenders (Diakhaby, Copete, Tarrega) and their only striker of note (Sadiq, muscle injury). Home advantage at Mendizorroza, a 5–3–2 head-to-head edge, and the API prediction (76.7% for Alaves, form 91% vs 9%, attack 92% vs 8%) all align behind a clear home win.

Key factors

• Alaves 3W–1D in last 5, 11 goals scored; Valencia 0W–4L in last 5, 1 goal in 5 games.
• Lucas Boyé on 4 goals in 4 appearances; Mariano Díaz 3 goals + 3 assists — both in fine form.
• Valencia missing 7+ confirmed absentees including defenders Diakhaby, Copete, Tarrega and striker Sadiq; Alaves only 3 minor absences.
• Alaves 4th in La Liga standings with +6 GD; Valencia 20th with −9 GD.
• Head-to-head: Alaves 5 wins vs Valencia 3 wins; recent home form for Alaves strong.
• API prediction 45% draw, 45% home win (conservative phrasing, but form/attack dominance heavily favours Alaves); odds at 1.80 home imply ~56% probability, which undervalues the form gap.

Win probability

• Alaves: 61%
• Draw: 26%
• Valencia: 13%

Goals & scoring

• Over 2.5 goals: 51%
• Both teams to score: 42%

Recent form

Alaves: LWWDW · Valencia: LLLLD

Standings

• Alaves: 4th in La Liga, 10 pts
• Valencia: 20th in La Liga, 1 pts

Head-to-head

Alaves 5 · Valencia 3 · 2 draws

• 2026-03-08: Valencia 3-2 Alaves
• 2025-10-20: Alaves 0-0 Valencia
• 2025-05-14: Alaves 1-0 Valencia
• 2024-12-22: Valencia 2-2 Alaves
• 2024-07-24: Valencia 0-1 Alaves