Alaves vs Getafe — AI prediction

Kick-off: 2026-08-15

Alaves have pre-season form (DWWDL, 7 goals for, 4 against) but this is La Liga's opening fixture, 15 Aug 2026—both sides carry zero competitive season data. Head-to-head heavily favours Getafe (4 wins, 1 draw, only 1 Alaves win in six recent meetings; 0-2 loss at home Feb 2026). Alaves are depleted: F. Garces (suspended), T. Mendes (knee injury), L. Boye and C. Protesoni questionable. Getafe have lost key attacking pieces (Juanmi, C. Uche both out), weakening their attack. The API model flags Getafe at 73% (H2H + Goals strength), but recent form shows Getafe defensive vulnerability (7 goals conceded in friendlies, including 0-1 to Monaco, 1-4 to Atlético). Neither has competitive season signal; home advantage is modest at season start. A low-scoring draw or slight Alaves upset at home represents fair value vs. the market's Getafe lean.

Key factors

• Season start (15 Aug 2026): zero competitive data; pre-season form only. Uncertainty elevated.
• H2H decisive: Getafe 4 wins, 1 draw vs. Alaves 1 win in six meetings (2023–2026); Getafe won 0-2 at Alaves Feb 2026.
• Alaves injuries: F. Garces (suspended), T. Mendes (knee), L. Boye & C. Protesoni (muscle/injury, questionable). Defence compromised.
• Getafe injuries: Juanmi and C. Uche (both out). Attack depth reduced; no compensating attacking form.
• Getafe pre-season: leaked 7 goals (Monaco 1-0 loss, Atlético 1-4 loss). Defensive fragility despite H2H dominance.
• Alaves pre-season: 7 goals for, 4 against (DWWDL). Modest but solid offensive output; at home vs. weakened Getafe attack.
• API model: 73% Getafe (H2H + Goals), but ignores Getafe's defensive susceptibility and Alaves home slot.
• Market: Getafe 3.55 implied ~28%, Alaves 2.35 implied ~43%. Draw 2.76 implied ~36%. Slight home fade evident.
• Expected outcome: Low-scoring, tight match. Draw or Alaves minor upset plausible; Getafe not assured despite H2H edge.

Win probability

• Alaves: 39%
• Draw: 37%
• Getafe: 25%

Recent form

Alaves: DWWDL · Getafe: DLLDW

Standings

• Alaves: 4th in La Liga, 0 pts
• Getafe: 7th in La Liga, 0 pts

Head-to-head

Alaves 1 · Getafe 4 · 5 draws

• 2026-02-08: Alaves 0-2 Getafe
• 2025-09-24: Getafe 1-1 Alaves
• 2025-02-09: Alaves 0-1 Getafe
• 2024-09-28: Getafe 2-0 Alaves
• 2024-05-18: Alaves 1-0 Getafe